What do Chinese EVs mean for sales and emissions?
Dave Sawyer, January 16, 2026 Draft for comment Chinese imports improve affordability by both expanding the EV market and redistributing market share but deliver only modest additional decarbonization gains. With the Prime Minister’s trip to China opening the Canadian market to at least 49,000 Chinese EVs per year and climbing, we can expect higher EV sales, some redistribution of market share among producers, and a modest improvement in emissions outcomes. This volume is not
Pipelines create supply. Policy shapes the emissions
The Canada–Alberta MOU brings into focus an old debate: do pipelines simply move oil, or do they incent new production and emissions? The data indicates pipelines unlock supply, which makes emissions policy matter. Draft working paper: January 11, 2026 Do pipelines create new oil production and emissions, or do they just move existing barrels around at lower cost? The Canada–Alberta MOU puts this question into sharp focus. To answer this, we need to look at how Alberta's p
Simulating how carbon markets work in the wild
For about a year, I’ve been building a Python-based simulation model that mirrors how large-emitter trading systems behave in the wild. These industrial carbon pricing systems look somewhat uniform on paper but operate very differently once you dig into the design details. Each province runs its own version, with distinct compliance obligations, offset rules, and limits on what counts toward compliance. At first glance, the $170 carbon price looks like the great equalizer. Bu
La nature dans le bilan fédéral : il est temps de procéder à une réforme biobudgétaire
La réforme des subventions est l’une des mesures les plus simples et les plus claires que le Canada peut prendre pour tenir ses...
Nature on the federal balance sheet: it’s time for bio-fiscal reform
Reforming subsidies is one of the simplest, clearest ways Canada can back up its promises on nature and keep an eye on Canada’s fiscal...
Driving the economy while reducing emissions: Tesla’s impact in Canada
Tesla asked EnviroEconomics to assess the economic impact of their Canadian operations and spending, as well as the emission reductions...
Topping Up: A GHG Assessment of CAPPs’ Energy Platform for Canada
Environmental Defence asked us to quantify the GHG implications of the Energy Platform of the Canadian Association of Petroleum...
A wonk’s thread: An Emission and Cost Assessment of “A Real Plan to Protect Our Environment”
Adopting a tweet style, here goes: Our assessment answers 3 questions (paper is here): What are the GHG reductions & costs? 9.1Mt more...
The Cost Implications of Ontario’s Environment Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
We assess the economic costs of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures contained in the Made-in-Ontario Environment Plan (Plan) and...
Federal Carbon Price Impacts on Households in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario
In this paper (here) supported by Canadians for Clean Prosperity, we explore the cost impacts of the federal carbon pricing backstop on...
