Dave Sawyer, January 16, 2026 Draft for comment Chinese imports improve affordability by both expanding the EV market and redistributing market share but deliver only modest additional decarbonization gains. With the Prime Minister’s trip to China opening the Canadian market to at least 49,000 Chinese EVs per year and climbing, we can expect higher EV sales, some redistribution of market share among producers, and a modest improvement in emissions outcomes. This volume is not

The Canada–Alberta MOU brings into focus an old debate: do pipelines simply move oil, or do they incent new production and emissions?    The data indicates pipelines unlock supply, which makes emissions policy matter. Draft working paper: January 11, 2026 Do pipelines create new oil production and emissions, or do they just move existing barrels around at lower cost? The Canada–Alberta MOU puts this question into sharp focus. To answer this, we need to look at how Alberta's p