Conflating revealed political will with Canada’s new 2030 target


There has been a loud chorus condemning Canada's "weak" INDC. I think many are conflating Canada’s revealed political will to act on climate with the new 2030 target.

In my view, it is a strong target and, if stronger political will materializes at home and abroad, "could" put Canada on a trajectory consistent with a 2° C target. (chart above).

For the DDPP Canada, we have been assessing different energy pathways for Canada to 2° C, which is about -86% below 2005 levels or 1.7 tonnes per capita. One of those pathways comes very close to the new INDC of -30% below 2005 levels in 2030.

For this -30%\2° C trajectory, we model a policy package that is extremely aggressive relative to current standards, yet triggers technology deployment that looks mostly feasible now. Note that as part of the UNSDSN DDPP we set aside land use and land-use UNFCCC accounting, so we are primarily looking at energy, process and fugitive emissions.

So folks, perhaps stop slagging the target. It could (technically) be a milestone on the pathway to 2° C. Well, at least one pathway to 2dC in our model.


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